By SETH FORMAN
Published: May 6, 2011 / examiner.com
Many analysts and government officials have been surprised by the lower than expected 2010 census population counts for Long Island and New York City, and indeed, the entire state of New York. In fact, the Census Bureau itself, in its annual population estimates program, and the Long Island Power Authority, in its annual Long Island Population Survey, appears to have overestimated the New York metro area counties' populations, most likely the result of a steeper than expected increase in the number of residential vacancies, and a steeper than expected decline in the number of illegal/unauthorized residents. A new Long Island Regional Planning Council report (scroll down to "reports and documents") makes the following points:
In all likelihood, both the Census Bureau's Population Estimates program did not capture the sudden but widespread effect on the region's housing and immigrant populations of the 2007-2010 economic down turn. That is, an increase in the number of housing vacancies, caused by home foreclosures and the departure of low-skilled, mostly undocumented immigrant laborers from abroad due to job declines, eluded the most commonly used survey and forecasting methods.